THE INVEST HAVEN
Week in Review & Week Ahead
The Week That Celebrated, Then Remembered
Monday opened with CPI at 3.8%. Thursday closed with the Dow above 50,000. Friday ended with a 537-point selloff and oil at $105. In five sessions the market moved from inflation scare to record highs to reality check. The S&P 500 still finished the week up 0.3%. Next week brings Nvidia earnings, FOMC minutes, and the consumer’s turn on the stand.
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The Week: May 12–16
• CPI + PPI: Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually, the hottest since May 2023. Producer prices jumped 1.4% for the month, nearly triple the forecast. Annual PPI hit 6.0%, the highest since December 2022. Real wages went negative for the first time in three years.
• Records, Then Reversal: The S&P 500 crossed 7,500 for the first time on Thursday. The Dow retook 50,000. Then Friday brought a 537-point Dow selloff, a 1.24% drop in the S&P, and a 1.54% decline in the Nasdaq. Weekly result: S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Dow flat.
• Trump-Xi Summit: Two days, no breakthrough. Both sides agreed Hormuz must stay open. Xi offered to help broker peace with Iran. Trump said China agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets and U.S. oil. But the readouts diverged: Beijing did not confirm the oil purchases, the Hormuz language, or the nuclear stance.
• Cerebras (CBRS): Opened at $350 on a $185 IPO price, closed day one at $311.07, up 68%. Fell 10% on Friday. Largest U.S. tech IPO since Uber in 2019.
• Oil: WTI settled Friday at $105.42, up more than 4%. Brent closed at $109.26, up more than 3%. Trump told Fox News he is “not going to be much more patient” with Iran.
What the Week Told Us
The inflation picture got worse, not better. Monday’s CPI came in at 3.8% annually, driven by gasoline up 28.4% and energy costs at their highest since September 2022. Wednesday’s PPI was more alarming: 1.4% monthly, with services contributing nearly 60% of the increase. This is no longer just oil. Trade margins, truck freight, chemicals, and machinery wholesaling all accelerated. The pipeline behind consumer prices is filling, not draining.
The summit produced statements, not solutions. Trump and Xi agreed Hormuz must remain open. Xi said he would not supply military equipment to Iran. Both are useful positions. Neither reopens the Strait. Al Jazeera reported that the Chinese and American readouts “only overlap in limited areas.” Beijing did not confirm the oil purchases or the Hormuz language in its own public statement. Markets rallied on Thursday and sold off on Friday when the gap between words and action became visible.
The AI trade carried the index again. Cerebras debuted at $350 on a $185 price. Cisco rallied 13% on a “networking supercycle.” Nvidia gained 4.4% on Thursday after the U.S. cleared 10 Chinese firms for H200 chips. Then Friday unwound much of it: Nvidia fell 4.4%, Intel dropped 6%, AMD lost 5.7%, and Cerebras shed 10%. Microsoft was the lone standout, rising 4% after Pershing Square disclosed a position.
The influence map. Oil is running the market right now. It drove CPI. It drove PPI. It colored the summit. It triggered Friday’s reversal when Trump said he is “not going to be much more patient” with Iran and oil spiked above $105. Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management put it directly: 10 of the last 12 recessions were preceded by an oil spike. The question is no longer whether oil matters. It is whether anything else matters as much.
Next Week: Three Tests
Test 1: Nvidia (Wednesday after close). The chip giant reports Q1 earnings after guiding to over $300 billion in calendar 2026 revenue. The stock is up 15% in the past month. Cerebras just debuted at a $67 billion valuation. The entire AI trade rests on whether Nvidia can keep delivering numbers large enough to justify the valuations built on top of its supply chain. A beat is expected. The question is whether the guidance is big enough to hold the rally or whether “sell the news” takes over.
Test 2: FOMC Minutes (Wednesday). The April meeting produced four dissents, the most since 1992. The minutes will reveal the full debate. After CPI at 3.8% and PPI at 6.0%, the hawks will sound louder than they did six weeks ago. FedWatch shows roughly 39% odds of a rate hike. If the minutes read hawkish, yields climb higher and the 10-year pushes toward 4.50%.
Test 3: The consumer (Tuesday through Thursday). Walmart and Home Depot report Tuesday. Target and TJX report Wednesday. Lowe’s also on Wednesday. These five companies will tell you more about the American household than any government report. With real wages negative and gas station spending driving April’s retail gain, the question is whether consumers are holding up or just paying more for less.
This was a week of extremes. Records and reversals. Summits and selloffs. The S&P still finished positive, but the texture underneath moved from celebration to caution. Next week delivers the three reports that will decide whether the market picks up where Thursday left off or where Friday did.
Harold Winston
Thirty years advising individual investors. Now reads markets for a living.
Stay grounded while markets move fast.

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