One company is 15.6% of the index emerging-markets funds copy, as much as Nvidia and Apple combined in the S&P 500.
 
THE INVEST HAVEN
Your International Fund Is the Same AI Bet, With a Passport
Korea’s stock market stopped trading at 12:38 p.m. Thursday after its main index fell 8%. The same afternoon, TSMC, the Taiwanese company that makes most of the world’s advanced chips, reported the biggest quarterly profit in its history. Millions of Americans own emerging-markets funds, which buy stocks in countries such as Taiwan, Korea, China and India, to spread their money beyond a few U.S. tech giants. As of Sept. 30, three Asian chipmakers made up 30% of the main index those funds copy.
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The Scoreboard
• Korea: The Kospi, Korea’s main stock index, closed down 7.6% at 5,554.22 Thursday. An 8% slide earlier in the day set off an automatic 20-minute trading pause, the 10th this year. SK Hynix fell 11.1% and Samsung 9.5%. The index is now 38.7% below its June 18 close of 9,063.84.
• Taiwan: TSMC earned about $23.6 billion in the July–September quarter, up 69% from a year earlier, its sixth record quarter in a row and more than analysts expected. It told investors to expect $52.3–54.3 billion in sales this quarter, up from $46.72 billion.
• The index: In the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the list most emerging-markets funds copy, TSMC made up 15.63% on Sept. 30, Samsung 8.49% (its two kinds of shares combined) and SK Hynix 5.90%. That is 30.02% riding on three companies out of 1,165.
• Wall Street: The S&P 500 fell 1.11% to 7,718.94 Wednesday and the Nasdaq 1.88% after September inflation came in at 3.7%, above the 3.6% expected. Traders now put the odds of a Fed rate hike this month at about 35%, up from 22% a day earlier (CME FedWatch).
• Who sold: Foreign investors sold about $2.7 billion more Korean stock than they bought Thursday, the seventh trading day in a row. Korean individuals bought nearly $1 billion.
Details
The Concentration Followed You Overseas
At 12:38 p.m. in Seoul on Thursday, the Korea Exchange stopped trading for 20 minutes. The Kospi, Korea’s main index, had fallen 8% from Wednesday’s close, enough to set off an automatic pause, and it went on to finish down 7.6% at 5,554.22. SK Hynix, which makes the memory chips that work alongside Nvidia’s processors in AI computers, lost 11.1%. Samsung lost 9.5%. In Tokyo, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gave up 4.9%.
The same afternoon in Taiwan, TSMC, which manufactures Nvidia’s chips, reported a sixth straight quarter of record profit: about $23.6 billion, up 69% from a year earlier, on $46.72 billion of sales. It told investors the next three months would bring $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion. Demand for AI chips held up fine on Thursday. What fell was the price investors are willing to pay for chip stocks. The day before, U.S. inflation came in hotter than expected and the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds briefly topped 5.32%. CoreWeave, a company that rents out AI computing power and carries nearly $50 billion of debt, lost 15% the same day. TSMC still plans to spend $60 billion to $64 billion this year. That money ends up in data centers that need enormous amounts of electricity, which is why some of the loudest sales pitches have moved from AI chips to power.
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Why this reaches your 401(k). The emerging-markets fund is the slice many 401(k) plans and advisors add so your money is not riding on the same handful of U.S. tech names. On Oct. 6 we noted that Nvidia and Apple make up 15.61% of the S&P 500. In the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, TSMC alone made up 15.63% at the end of September. Add Samsung and SK Hynix, and three companies came to 30.02% of an index that holds 1,165. Taiwan and South Korea together were 50.34%. Put another way: of every $80,000 in a fund that copies the index, roughly $24,000 sat in those three chipmakers and about $12,500 in TSMC alone.
The rally hid it. Through Sept. 30, the MSCI emerging-markets index gained 23.38% this year, against 13.03% for MSCI’s index of stocks worldwide. That looked like spreading your money out was paying off. Much of the gain came from the same AI hardware boom, just bought in a different currency. Korea’s Kospi roughly doubled in the first half of the year, according to the Korean business paper Aju Business Daily, and has now lost more than 20% in seven trading days.
Watch who is selling. The money moved before the headlines did. Foreign investors sold about $2.7 billion more Korean stock than they bought on Thursday, the seventh trading day in a row. Korean individuals bought nearly $1 billion, and Korean funds and other institutions about $1.3 billion. Korean investors also owed their brokers about $25 billion in loans taken out to buy stock. On Tuesday, brokers forced the most sales since July 31 on customers who had bought shares they could not pay for. Big global money managers are selling while local investors buy the drop, partly with borrowed money. In my years advising investors, that mix usually meant the low point took longer to arrive. Weeks like this are also when the gold sellers make their loudest case, and one of them makes it below.
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Where that leaves you. TSMC’s forecast says the AI building boom still has room to run. Thursday says something narrower: an overseas fund can carry the same bet you thought you were balancing. Every fund publishes a fact sheet, a one-page summary that lists its top ten holdings, and that list tells you more than the fund’s name. Fund companies also follow different index makers: MSCI counts Korea as an emerging market and FTSE counts it as a developed one, so these chipmakers can show up in either kind of international fund. Gold dealers offer one answer to that. My steadier read is simpler: know how much of your money rises and falls with one industry, and decide on purpose whether that share suits you.
The next test comes at 8:30 a.m. Eastern today, when the government reports September retail sales (forecast: up 0.3%) and producer prices, the wholesale prices businesses charge each other (forecast: up 0.5%). Bond interest rates eased overnight. If both numbers come in high, rates could climb again before the Fed meets Oct. 27–28, and Seoul just showed how fast the market’s most popular bet can fall when the mood turns.
Plenty of Americans went overseas to get away from the AI trade. It was already there, holding 30% of the seats.
Harold Winston
Advised individual investors for thirty years. Now reads markets for a living.
Stay grounded while markets move fast.