SpaceX Reports Tonight. Two Days Later, $100 Billion in Insider Stock Comes Free.

For more than two decades SpaceX kept its finances private. That ends at 4:30 this afternoon, when the largest IPO in history reports quarterly earnings for the first time. The timing is unforgiving. The stock has fallen about 47 percent from its June peak to roughly $108, below its $135 offering price, and investors have been selling since the first week. Tonight is management’s first chance to give them a reason to stop. Two days later, on Thursday, a lock-up frees up to 911.5 million insider shares, more stock than the entire public float.

SpaceX going public in June was a spectacle. It priced at $135, raised a record $85.7 billion, and ran to $225 within four days on the strength of the story: rockets, Starlink, Mars, and Elon Musk. What the public never got was the arithmetic. Tonight it arrives. At 4:30, for the first time, SpaceX reports what it actually earns and spends, and the market gets to check the story against the numbers.

The figures that have leaked out are not simple. SpaceX lost $4.9 billion in 2025 on $18.7 billion in sales, and about $4.3 billion more in the first quarter of this year. Starlink is the engine that works, 10.3 million subscribers and growing more than 100 percent a year, throwing off real operating profit. The AI arm, the data-center business built around Musk’s xAI, lost $2.47 billion in a single quarter. Capital spending is projected to climb from roughly $49 billion this year toward $118 billion by 2028. Tonight tells investors which of those trends is winning.

Then comes Thursday, and Thursday is the harder test. SpaceX wrote its lock-up so that the first shares come free two trading days after this earnings report. That puts the date at Thursday, when holders can sell up to 911.5 million shares, roughly a fifth of the restricted stock and worth more than $100 billion at today’s price. That is a larger block than the entire public float that has traded since June. The people holding it bought in private rounds years ago at a fraction of $135. For them, a sale even at $108 is a windfall.

Palantir just set the bar. Last night, the first big AI name to report since the group split delivered a blowout: earnings well ahead of estimates, US commercial revenue up nearly 150 percent, guidance raised, and the stock up about 15 percent after hours. The message matched the one the market sent all last week. It will pay generously, even at rich valuations, for growth that is visibly accelerating. SpaceX reports into that standard. The difference is that Palantir makes money, and SpaceX, outside Starlink, does not yet.

Where that leaves you. None of this is a reason to trade SpaceX tonight; a company pricing a 14 percent swing on its first-ever report is a coin toss dressed as an event. The value is in the lesson it puts on display, in real time, on the most famous stock of the year. The story sells the shares to the public near the top. The numbers arrive later. And the earliest investors get their exit later still, often into the very enthusiasm that carried the stock up. Watch tonight for the business and Thursday for the supply, and keep the two straight, because they are different questions.